Value betting masterclass · Module 2: Finding the best price · Lesson 7 of 25 · About 8 min
Sharp bookmakers set their own prices, accept big bets and move their odds quickly when informed money arrives. Soft bookmakers mostly follow the market instead. If you want to judge whether a price is good, it helps to know which kind of firm you are looking at.
This guide explains the difference in plain English, covering margins, limits and how prices move, and why the sharpest prices make the best yardstick for value.
Read the transcript
Some bookmakers set the price, while others mostly follow it. Knowing which is which sharpens the way you judge a bet.
Sharp bookmakers make their own prices, run low margins, and are happy to take bets from winning customers. Soft bookmakers run higher margins, follow the wider market, and may limit your stakes if you win.
Take a tennis match. One book offers one point nine five on each player, a margin of about two point six per cent. Another offers one point eight seven, closer to seven per cent. Same match, but the second book keeps far more of every pound.
Because sharp prices sit so close to fair, they make a useful benchmark. If the sharp market has one side at around two point oh six and another firm offers two point two, that's roughly six point seven pence per pound in expected value. An estimate, not a promise.
Pinnacle, the best-known sharp bookmaker, isn't available in the UK, so most UK bettors use the Betfair Exchange as their reference price. A good benchmark helps you judge a price, but it can't promise a profit. Please bet responsibly.
Key points
- Sharp bookmakers make their own prices, run low margins and are happy to take bets from winning customers.
- Soft bookmakers usually run bigger margins, rely on the wider market for prices and may limit stakes.
- Sharp prices are the nearest thing to a fair price, which makes them a good benchmark.
- Pinnacle isn’t available in the UK, so UK bettors usually use the Betfair Exchange as their reference.
- A benchmark helps you judge prices but never promises a profit.
What makes a bookmaker sharp
A sharp bookmaker is a price maker. Its traders and models build its own odds, then the bets it takes show it where the price should sit. If large, well-informed bets keep arriving on one side, it shortens that side quickly.
Because it learns from its customers, a sharp firm is glad to take bets from winners, whose stakes are useful information. That lets it run low margins and high limits, and its prices tend to settle close to the true chance of each outcome.
What makes a bookmaker soft
A soft bookmaker earns most of its money from people who bet for entertainment. It often takes its prices from the wider market, then adds its own margin and promotions on top. That is a business choice rather than a flaw, and many soft firms run big, familiar brands.
A firm that copies the market can be slow to react, though. When team news breaks and the sharp price moves, a soft price may lag behind for a few minutes. Soft firms may also price popular markets with extra margin and use offers to win new customers. We don’t label any named bookmaker as soft, because each firm’s approach changes over time and varies by sport.
Margins: sharp vs soft
The margin, or overround, is the extra a bookmaker builds into its prices. Add up the implied probability of every outcome and take away 100% to find it. Our implied probability (Lesson 2 out of 25 in the Masterclass) guide shows the full method.
Worked example
Take a tennis match between two evenly matched players (prices for illustration only). Book A offers 1.97 on each. Each price implies 1 ÷ 1.97 = 50.76%, so the total is 101.52% and the margin is about 1.5%.
Book B offers 1.85 on each. Each price implies 54.05%, so the total is 108.11% and the margin is about 8.1%. Same match, same chances, but Book B keeps over five times as much of every pound staked over time.
Low margins are typical of sharp bookmakers on major markets, while soft firms often sit higher, particularly on less popular markets and accumulators. The calculator below checks the margin and fair odds on any two-way or three-way market.
Fair odds and margin calculator
Limits and account restrictions
Sharp bookmakers usually accept large stakes and rarely limit winners, because their model depends on taking those bets. Soft bookmakers manage risk differently: they may cut an account’s maximum stake, remove offers or close the account for commercial reasons.
This is legal in Great Britain. Bookmakers can make commercial decisions about who they serve, provided they don’t discriminate on protected grounds. Our betting account restrictions (Lesson 22 out of 25 in the Masterclass) guide covers the regulator’s figures and what to expect.
How prices move
Odds aren’t fixed. They open, move as money and news come in, and close when the event begins. Sharp bookmakers lead the way: they open with low limits while the price is still rough, raise those limits as bets sharpen the line, and by kick-off the price reflects a huge amount of information.
Soft prices tend to follow those moves, often a little behind. That delay is one reason a soft price can sometimes sit above the sharp price for a while, and it is why the closing sharp price is such a useful test. Our closing line value (Lesson 9 out of 25 in the Masterclass) guide explains how to compare the odds you took with the final price.
Why sharp prices make a good benchmark
To know whether a price is value, you need an estimate of the true chance, and building your own model is hard. Many bettors use sharp prices as a shortcut instead, because they have low margins and plenty of informed money behind them.
The method is simple. Strip the margin from the sharp price to get a fair price, then compare that with the odds available elsewhere. If you can get longer odds than the fair price, the bet may have positive expected value. Our fair odds guide (Lesson 3 out of 25 in the Masterclass) and expected value guide (Lesson 4 out of 25 in the Masterclass) walk through both steps.
Worked example
A sharp market prices Player A at 2.10 and Player B at 1.85. The implied chances are 47.62% and 54.05%, a total of 101.67%. So Player A’s fair chance is 47.62 ÷ 101.67 = 46.84%, or fair odds of about 2.13.
Another bookmaker offers 2.30 on Player A. The EV per £1 is 0.4684 × 2.30 − 1 = about 0.077, or 7.7p per £1 staked on average. That is an estimate rather than a promise, and any single bet either lands or it doesn’t.
Sharp prices aren’t perfect. They can be wrong, especially early in the week or in small markets with little money behind them, so treat them as the best guide available rather than the truth.
UK bettors: Pinnacle and Betfair
Pinnacle is the firm most people have in mind when they talk about sharp bookmakers. It left the UK in 2014 and later withdrew its licence application, as iGaming Business reported in 2018, so it isn’t available to UK customers. Only bet with firms licensed by the Gambling Commission.
UK bettors usually use the Betfair Exchange as their reference instead. On an exchange, customers bet against each other, so the price comes from the crowd rather than a single trader. In busy markets with plenty of money matched, the gap between back and lay is small and the midpoint is a fair estimate of the true chance.
Betfair charges commission on net winnings in each market, so check the current rate and allow for it when you compare prices. Our Betfair Exchange guide (Lesson 8 out of 25 in the Masterclass) has more detail.
The honest limits
Knowing sharp bookmakers from soft ones helps you judge prices. It doesn’t turn betting into an income, and if you find value often, a soft bookmaker may limit your account. Treat value betting as a way to bet more thoughtfully, set a budget and only stake what you can comfortably afford.
Related guides
- Value betting explained (Lesson 1 out of 25 in the Masterclass)
- Odds shopping: what the best price is worth (Lesson 6 out of 25 in the Masterclass)
- Bookmaker margin explained
- Betting variance (Lesson 13 out of 25 in the Masterclass)
Lesson 7 of 25 · Finding the best price
18+ only. Betting should stay fun. Set a budget before you start, only bet what you can comfortably afford, and take a break whenever you need one. For free, confidential support, visit BeGambleAware.org or call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133.