Value betting masterclass · Module 4: Football markets and the Value Predictor · Lesson 18 of 25 · About 7 min
Tipster sites, stats tools and trading groups all love a track record: hit rates, winning streaks, screenshots from members and “best month ever” banners. This lesson gives you five checks for judging any track record, ours included, so you can tell a genuine edge from numbers that only look impressive.
The quick answer is that a hit rate by itself tells you almost nothing. What counts is the price the bets were taken at, how many bets there were, and whether the rules were fixed before or after the results were known.
Read the transcript
Tipsters and stats tools love to show a track record. Here's how to tell a genuine edge from numbers that only look good.
First, a hit rate isn't a profit. Seventy-two per cent winners at one point three gives up six point four per cent. Fifty-five per cent winners at one point nine makes four and a half. Divide one by the hit rate for the break-even price: seventy-two per cent needs at least one point three nine.
Second, sample size. A method that truly wins sixty per cent of the time could show anything from forty-six to seventy-four per cent over fifty bets. Look for hundreds of bets before you trust it.
Third, were the rules set before the results came in? Test twenty filters with no real edge, and there's a sixty-four per cent chance at least one looks great purely by luck. That's the one you'll be shown.
Fourth, could you really have got those prices? Allow for commission, which turns two point oh into one point nine five at five per cent, and for the stake limits bookmakers put on winning accounts.
Fifth, think about who is showing you the record, and why. Screenshots come from the winners, and subscriptions pay whether members win or not. A believable record shows the odds, the profit and the bad runs too. Judge the price, not the pick, and please bet responsibly.
Key points
- A hit rate isn’t profit. Always ask what odds the bets were at.
- The break-even price is 1 ÷ the hit rate, so a 74% hit rate needs odds above 1.35.
- Small samples swing wildly: 50 bets can sit 14 percentage points from the truth either way.
- Rules fitted to past results nearly always look better than they will on new matches.
- Check the prices were really available, after commission and stake limits.
Check 1: a hit rate isn’t profit
“Over 2.5 goals came in 74% of the time” sounds great, but a bet that lands often is usually priced short. The question that matters is whether the price paid more than the chance deserved.
Worked example. A filter finds 100 matches, over 2.5 goals lands in 74 of them, and the typical price was 1.32. With £10 on each:
| Step | Working | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Staked | 100 × £10 | £1,000 |
| Returned | 74 winners × £10 × 1.32 | £976.80 |
| Return on stakes | £976.80 ÷ £1,000 − 1 | −2.3% |
| Break-even price at a 74% hit rate | 1 ÷ 0.74 | 1.35 |
Despite landing three times in four, the filter returned less than it staked, because at 1.32 you need a hit rate above 75.8%. Compare a filter that lands just 56% of the time at 1.95: it returns 56 × £19.50 = £1,092 from £1,000, a 9.2% profit. So whenever you see a hit rate, work out the break-even price (1 ÷ the hit rate) and compare it with the odds you can really get. Our odds converter does the sum for you.
Check 2: how many bets?
Results jump around a lot over a small number of bets. Even if a method genuinely lands 55% of the time, this is the range you would expect to see 95% of the time from luck alone:
| Number of bets | Hit rate you might see |
|---|---|
| 50 | about 41% to 69% |
| 200 | about 48% to 62% |
| 1,000 | about 52% to 58% |
So a good month proves very little. Look for hundreds of bets, and be wary of anyone who only shows a short, hand-picked period. Our variance calculator shows how wide the swings can be.
Check 3: were the rules set before or after the results?
Take enough past data and cut it enough ways, by league, odds band, minute, form or day of the week, and some slices will always look brilliant. That is luck dressed up as a system.
Here is why. Test 20 filters with no real edge, each with a 5% chance of looking “significant” by luck, and the chance that at least one looks great is 1 − 0.9520, about 64%. That one is the filter you get shown.
The fair test is to fix the rules first, then check them only on matches played afterwards. Ask whether a record is a backtest (rules applied to the past) or live results logged at the time.
Check 4: could you have got those prices?
- Which price? Results worked out at the best price across every bookmaker, or at the top price before it shortened, are better than most people will actually get.
- Commission. On an exchange, commission comes off your winnings. At 5%, a back bet at 2.00 effectively pays 1.95, and at 2% it pays 1.98.
- Stake limits. Bookmakers often limit accounts that keep winning or keep taking the best prices, so a strategy that depends on them may not last.
Check 5: who is showing you the record, and why?
- Screenshots and testimonials come from people whose bets came in. People whose bets didn’t land rarely post.
- Subscriptions earn the same whatever members’ results are, so the incentive is to keep people subscribed and betting.
- Affiliate links pay out when people join a bookmaker. We earn this way too, which is exactly why we tell you to judge every bet on its price rather than our say-so.
None of this means every track record is false. It means a believable one shows the odds, the profit as well as the hit rate, a large number of bets, rules fixed in advance, and the quiet spells as well as the good ones.
What this means for the Value Predictor
Our Value Predictor doesn’t sell tips. Recent form is already priced in by bookmakers, so a form shortlist isn’t an edge on its own. That is why the Value Predictor shows the best UK price, a fair price from the betting exchanges, a Value tag when a price beats fair by 3% or more, and the break-even price in each market. The price is what decides whether a bet is worth taking.
Track record questions
What counts as a good hit rate?
There isn’t one. A 35% hit rate at 3.20 returns 12% profit, while an 85% hit rate at 1.15 gives back less than it stakes. A hit rate only means something alongside the odds.
How many bets before I trust a record?
Several hundred at the very least, and more at bigger odds, because results at long odds swing further. Even then, check whether the bets beat the closing price, which is a quicker and steadier sign of an edge than profit.
Is a backtest worthless?
No. A backtest is a useful first check, as long as the rules were set before anyone looked at the results and the prices used were ones you could have got. Treat it as a reason to keep testing, not as proof.
How do I judge my own betting?
Log every bet with the odds you took and the closing odds. Our free Bet Tracker works out your profit, return on investment, longest run without a winner and closing line value for you.
Related lessons: implied probability (Lesson 2 out of 25 in the Masterclass), betting variance (Lesson 13 out of 25 in the Masterclass), closing line value (Lesson 9 out of 25 in the Masterclass), keeping betting records (Lesson 14 out of 25 in the Masterclass) and value betting myths (Lesson 5 out of 25 in the Masterclass).
Lesson 18 of 25 · Football markets and the Value Predictor
18+ only. Betting should stay fun. Set a budget before you start, only bet what you can comfortably afford, and take a break whenever you need one. For free, confidential support, visit BeGambleAware.org or call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133.