Value Predictor
The free ValueBets.uk Value Predictor runs upcoming fixtures through four markets: over 2.5 goals, under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and match result. Every pick shows both teams’ recent form, the best UK price, a fair price from the betting exchanges and a green Value tag whenever the best price beats fair.
Games of the day
· UK time · picked by the Value Predictor
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Watch: how to use the Value Predictor
Read the transcript
This is the Value Predictor. It builds a shortlist from recent form across four markets, then checks each pick against the latest odds.
Right at the top, Games of the Day shows the strongest shortlisted matches, with the best price, the fair price and the break-even price for each one.
To build your own shortlist, pick a market, or choose All markets to see every match that passes for any of the four. Then choose how far ahead you want to look, and decide how to judge the form.
You can also choose which bookmakers we use. Tap My bookmakers and untick any you can’t use, for example one that has limited your stakes, then tick them back in whenever you like. The best prices and value bets come from the bookmakers you’ve ticked, while the fair price still uses every bookmaker.
The box underneath tells you how many fixtures match your settings, and tapping it brings up your shortlist.
Each row shows the pick, the best price and the fair price, with value bets listed first, or you can switch on Value bets only to see nothing else.
Tap any match to see the form behind it, where the green dots are recent games that fitted the market.
Underneath, you’ll find the best UK prices, and the fair price with the margin taken out.
The break-even price is one divided by how often shortlisted bets in that market have won, so you’d only want to bet at or above it, and any price three per cent or more above fair gets a green value tag.
Remember, a shortlist isn’t a tip and prices move, so always check before you bet. This is for over eighteens only, so please bet responsibly.
The video uses invented clubs and results to show how the tool works.
How the Value Predictor picks matches
The Value Predictor applies one simple rule to each market. A fixture makes the shortlist when both teams have landed that market in enough of their recent games. By default it uses the home team’s last five home games and the away team’s last five away games in the same competition.
- Over 2.5 goals: both teams went over in 70% or more of those games, which averaged 3.0 goals or more.
- Under 2.5 goals: both teams had two goals or fewer in 70% or more of those games, which averaged 2.0 goals or fewer.
- Both teams to score: both sides scored in 70% or more of each team’s games.
- Match result: the team in better form has won 60% or more and averages at least 2 points a game. We only pick favourites and mid-priced teams, at 3.00 or shorter, and never the draw.
You can change the number of games and include all venues or all competitions. Kick-off times are shown in UK time, and every pick lists the results behind it so you can check the form for yourself. Read how we choose the markets we cover (Lesson 15 out of 25 in the Masterclass).
Why first-half goals and over 1.5 were removed
Earlier versions of the Value Predictor included a goal in the first half and over 1.5 goals. We took both out: they land often, but they are priced so short that there is almost never value in them.
A typical first-half goal price is around 1.29, which only adds up if the bet lands about 77.5% of the time (1 ÷ 1.29). A typical over 1.5 price is around 1.17, which needs about 85.5%. Bookmakers already build recent form into those prices, so even fixtures with strong form rarely clear the bar.
The four markets we cover now have wider prices and busy exchange markets, which lets the Value Predictor set the best UK price against a fair price and tag value when it turns up.
Read the transcript
The Value Predictor covers four markets: over and under two and a half goals, both teams to score, and the match result. Here's why we dropped first-half goals and over one and a half.
Both of those markets land often, but they're priced very short. Over the last year, a typical price was about one point two nine for a first-half goal, and one point one seven for over one and a half.
At one point two nine, a bet only pays its way if it lands about seventy-seven per cent of the time. For over one and a half, it needs about eighty-five. With prices that tight, the good form is already priced in, so genuine value was very rare.
The four markets we cover have wider prices and busy exchange markets. That lets the predictor compare the best UK price with a fair price from the exchanges, and flag value when it appears.
So look for the Value tag, compare the prices, and please bet responsibly.
Using the Value Predictor with the odds
A shortlisted match is a pick, not a guarantee. It tells you recent form supports the pick, and whether it is worth a bet depends on the price. Estimate the chance, then turn it into a fair price: a 55% chance gives 1 ÷ 0.55 = 1.82. If the best odds beat your fair price, it may be value. If they don’t, it isn’t, however strong the form looks.
The Value Predictor does that sum for you. It builds a fair price from the Smarkets and Matchbook exchanges, using the midpoint of the best back and lay prices when the gap between them is tight, and otherwise the average UK bookmaker price with the margin removed. When the best UK price beats the fair price by 3% or more, the pick gets a green Value tag, and switching on Value bets only shows just those picks.
Read the transcript
Here's how to get the most from the Value Predictor by using it together with the odds.
The predictor checks each team's recent games against a simple rule. For over two and a half goals, both teams need seventy per cent of recent games to have gone over, plus an average of three goals or more. Any match that passes goes on the shortlist.
A shortlisted match isn't a tip. Bookmakers can see the same form, so it's usually already in the price. That's why every market shows a break-even price.
We tested the shortlist rules on every match in eight European leagues over twelve months. For over two and a half goals, the shortlisted bets won fifty-seven point six per cent of the time. One divided by nought point five seven six is one point seven four, the lowest price at which those bets pay their way.
Next, check the best price. At one point eight it clears the break-even price and the chip turns green. At one point six it falls short, so wait for a bigger price or skip it, however good the form looks.
Best of all is a green Value tag. It means a UK bookmaker is beating the fair price from the betting exchanges by three per cent or more. Form builds the shortlist, but the price decides whether a bet is worth taking. Please bet responsibly.
Because form is already priced in by bookmakers, a shortlisted match is only worth a bet at the right price. Each market therefore shows the break-even price its shortlist needs. We work it out by applying the shortlist rules to every match in eight European leagues over the past 12 months, counting how often the shortlisted bets came in and dividing 1 by that strike rate. For over 2.5 goals, 57.6% came in, so the break-even price is 1 ÷ 0.576 = 1.74. Under 2.5 is 1.88, both teams to score 1.63 and match result 1.71. Our lesson on how to judge a betting track record (Lesson 18 out of 25 in the Masterclass) explains why this matters, and our guides to pricing over 2.5 goals (Lesson 16 out of 25 in the Masterclass), fair odds (Lesson 3 out of 25 in the Masterclass) and expected value (Lesson 4 out of 25 in the Masterclass) cover the maths.
Where the data comes from
Fixtures and results come from football-data.org and update through the day. Odds, where shown, come from a live UK odds feed and can change quickly, so always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
The picks are built from past results, so they are a starting point rather than a guarantee. Use the Value Predictor as one input alongside the odds and team news, and if you are new to this, start with value betting explained (Lesson 1 out of 25 in the Masterclass). Log your bets in the free Bet Tracker to see how your prices compare over time.