This drip feed calculator checks a plan of in-play goals bets added while a match is still 0-0. It works out the fair odds at each minute, so you can see whether each stake has value in its own right.
Prices lengthen as the clock runs, so later odds look bigger, but that is because there is less time left for a goal, not because the bet has improved.
In-play drip feed calculator
Key points
- Choose a market: first-half goal, over 1.5 or over 2.5.
- Each step is a separate bet with its own value.
- The calculator uses a simple Poisson model of goals.
Using the calculator
Choose the market and enter the match’s expected goals. For the first half, the calculator uses 44% of that figure. Then add up to four steps, each with a minute, the odds and a stake. Each step only goes on if it is still 0-0.
For every step it shows the chance it is still 0-0, the chance the bet lands, the fair odds and the value. Across the whole plan it shows the average amount staked, the expected result, the EV percentage and how often none of the stakes returns anything.
Worked example
Worked example
Take a first-half goal bet in Arsenal v Bournemouth, a match with 2.8 expected goals, or about 1.23 in the first half. The plan is £10 at each step:
| Minute | Odds | Still 0-0 | Lands | Fair odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.45 | 100% | 70.8% | 1.41 | +2.7% |
| 15 | 1.75 | 66.3% | 56.0% | 1.79 | −2.0% |
| 25 | 2.10 | 50.4% | 42.2% | 2.37 | −11.5% |
| 35 | 2.80 | 38.4% | 23.9% | 4.18 | −32.9% |
On average you stake £25.51, and the expected result is −£1.70, an EV of −6.7%. In 29.2% of matches there is no first-half goal, so none of the stakes returns anything.
Reading the results
On this estimate the kick-off bet is good value, but every later step is poorer than the one before, so drip feeding makes the plan worse overall. Our guide to drip feeding bets explains why.
The model is simple, so treat the output as a rough guide: it ignores red cards and stoppage time, for instance. Our first half goals guide covers the model in more depth.
Other checks
Test a single price with the expected value calculator, or see how results swing with the betting variance calculator. For the maths behind goal counts, see the Poisson distribution.
Related guides and calculators
18+ only. Betting should stay fun. Set a budget before you start, only bet what you can comfortably afford, and take a break whenever you need one. For free, confidential support, visit BeGambleAware.org or call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133.