Red card trading explained
What happens to football markets after a red card and how to manage a trade you already hold, with worked numbers.
Read the transcript
When a player is sent off, football markets move sharply. Here's what changes after a red card, and how to manage a trade you already hold.
A red card weakens one team for the rest of the match. The exchange suspends the market and reopens it at new prices. You can't trade during the suspension, and the earlier the card, the bigger the move.
In match odds, the side with ten men usually drifts, and their opponents shorten. The draw can move either way, and the effect on goals depends on the match.
Say you've backed the home team for twenty pounds at two point five. The away team has a player sent off, and the home price shortens to one point nine five. Lay twenty-five pounds sixty-four, and you're five pounds sixty-four up either way, before commission. But if the home team has the player sent off, their price drifts to three point four. Laying fourteen pounds seventy-one closes the trade five pounds twenty-nine down.
Most red card trading protects a position you already hold. Some traders look for an overreaction in the reopened price, but that's easy to get wrong. With no position and no view, leave it alone.
You can't beat the suspension, and prices jump rather than slide, so a stop may not fill at your price. Decide in advance what you'll do if either team goes down to ten men, wait for play to restart if a card is under review, and record every trade. Please bet responsibly.
In this video
- What happens
- How prices react
- Your £20 back bet on the home team at 2.50
- Protect, don’t chase
- Plan ahead
Transcript
Read the full transcript
When a player is sent off, football markets move sharply. Here's what changes after a red card, and how to manage a trade you already hold.
A red card weakens one team for the rest of the match. The exchange suspends the market and reopens it at new prices. You can't trade during the suspension, and the earlier the card, the bigger the move.
In match odds, the side with ten men usually drifts, and their opponents shorten. The draw can move either way, and the effect on goals depends on the match.
Say you've backed the home team for twenty pounds at two point five. The away team has a player sent off, and the home price shortens to one point nine five. Lay twenty-five pounds sixty-four, and you're five pounds sixty-four up either way, before commission. But if the home team has the player sent off, their price drifts to three point four. Laying fourteen pounds seventy-one closes the trade five pounds twenty-nine down.
Most red card trading protects a position you already hold. Some traders look for an overreaction in the reopened price, but that's easy to get wrong. With no position and no view, leave it alone.
You can't beat the suspension, and prices jump rather than slide, so a stop may not fill at your price. Decide in advance what you'll do if either team goes down to ten men, wait for play to restart if a card is under review, and record every trade. Please bet responsibly.
Keep learning
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