Value betting masterclass · Module 1: The foundations · Lesson 5 of 25 · About 8 min
Myths about value betting spread quickly because the idea sounds so simple: back prices that are too big and you come out on top eventually. The details are where most people slip up.
Here we take seven common beliefs and test each one against the maths, with the fact that replaces it and real numbers where they help.
Read the transcript
Value betting is easy enough to describe, but there are seven popular beliefs about it that simply don't hold up, so let's check each one against the maths. The first myth is that a value bet is one that's likely to win. In fact, a favourite at one point four that really wins sixty-eight per cent of the time loses you about five pence per pound, while an outsider at five that wins a quarter of the time makes you twenty-five pence. It's the outsider that's the value bet. The second is that a value bet ought to win. But value is about the price, not a prediction, so if someone offered you two point two on a fair coin toss, that's clear value against a fair price of two, and it would still lose half the time. The third is that you need to win most of your bets, when what really matters is how often you win compared with the odds. At two and a half, you only need to win just over forty per cent of the time to come out ahead. Myth number four says that big odds mean value, but big odds really just mean a small chance. A horse at ten implies a ten per cent chance, and if its true chance is only eight, you'll lose around twenty pence for every pound on average. The fifth myth is that bookmakers always get it right. Their prices are good estimates, but they aren't perfect, and they shift as news and money come in, which is exactly why one firm might offer two point three while another has two point five on the same event. Myth six is that a good short-term run proves skill, when in small samples luck tends to dominate. After a hundred bets at evens on genuine fifty-fifty chances, with no edge at all, about eighteen per cent of people would be ten points up, so nearly one in five would look like they knew what they were doing. And finally, myth seven is that value betting guarantees a profit. Nothing can promise that, because your estimates can be wrong and any single bet can lose. So judge the price rather than the pick. You'll find the full guide on our site, and please bet responsibly.
Key points
- Value is about the price, not how likely a bet is to land.
- A value bet is a good price, not a prediction.
- Big odds aren’t value on their own.
- Short-term profit proves very little.
- No method can promise a profit.
Myths about winning
Myth 1: “Value means likely to win”
Fact: value compares the price with the true chance and says nothing about how likely a bet is to land. An outsider can be value and a heavy favourite can be poor value.
Worked example
- An outsider such as Wolves at 4.50 (7/2) away at Arsenal, if they truly win 25% of the time, has an EV of 0.25 × 4.50 − 1 = +0.125, or +12.5p per £1.
- A favourite such as Liverpool at 1.33 (1/3) at home implies 75.2%. If their true chance is 72%, the EV is 0.72 × 1.33 − 1 = −0.042.
The favourite comes in far more often, but the outsider is the value bet, even though it only lands one time in four.
Our implied probability guide shows how to turn any price into a percentage so you can make this comparison yourself.
Myth 2: “A value bet should win”
Fact: a value bet is a good price, not a forecast. Picture a fair coin offered at 2.10 on heads. That is clear value, because the fair price is 2.00, yet it still only comes up heads half the time.
So when a value bet doesn’t land, it doesn’t mean you were wrong. One result tells you almost nothing. Judge your bets by the price you got instead, which we come back to below.
Myth 3: “You need to win most of your bets”
Fact: what matters is your strike rate compared with the odds. At 3.00, you only need to land more than a third of your bets to come out ahead in the long run, so you can land far fewer than half and still have an edge.
With a true chance of 36% at 3.00, for instance, you land 36 bets in every 100 on average, and the EV is still +8%. That is why a high strike rate alone is no sign of skill: someone backing short favourites can land seven bets in ten and still be taking prices with negative value.
Myths about odds and bookmakers
Myth 4: “High odds mean value”
Fact: big odds simply mean a small chance, and they are only value if the real chance is bigger than the odds suggest. A horse at 12.00 implies 8.3%. If its true chance is 6.5%, the EV is 0.065 × 12.00 − 1 = −0.22, or 22p per £1 against you.
Studies of racing markets have long found that outsiders tend to offer poorer value than favourites, a pattern called the favourite-longshot bias. So big prices often carry more margin, not less. Our fair odds guide shows how to strip the margin out of a market.
Myth 5: “Bookmakers always get it right”
Fact: bookmakers price well, but not perfectly. Their odds are estimates that move as news and money come in, which is why different firms often quote different prices on the same event, such as 2.40 at one and 2.60 at another.
There is a grain of truth in the myth, though. Prices in big markets close to kick-off are hard to beat, because so much information is built into them, and that is what makes the closing price such a useful test. Our sharp bookmakers page explains which prices tend to be most accurate.
Myths about results and profit
Myth 6: “Short-term results prove skill”
Fact: luck dominates small samples. Imagine 100 bets at 2.00 on genuine 50/50 chances, with no edge at all. There is still roughly an 18% chance of finishing at least 10 points up, so nearly one person in five with no skill will look skilled.
It works the other way too: a real edge may still not be showing a profit after 100 or even 500 bets. A better early test is closing line value, whether you beat the final price. See how much results swing with the calculator below: set an edge and a number of bets, then run it a few times.
Variance simulator
Our betting variance and closing line value guides go into more detail.
Myth 7: “Value betting guarantees a profit”
Fact: nothing can promise a profit, because your estimates can always be wrong.
There is a practical limit in the UK as well. Bookmakers can legally restrict accounts for commercial reasons. A 2025 Gambling Commission review found 4.31% of about 15 million active accounts had some restriction in 2024, and restricted customers were far more likely to be in profit: 46.78%, compared with 25.42% of all active customers.
So treat value betting as a way to judge prices, not a way to earn a living. Our betting account restrictions guide explains the rules plainly.
Test the myths yourself
The best defence against myths is a clear record. Before each bet, note the odds you took and your own probability, then add the closing odds and the result. After a few hundred bets you can check your CLV and yield against the maths.
Our betting records guide shows what to track, or use the free Bet Tracker. If you are new to the subject, start with value betting explained.
And set a budget you can comfortably afford before you start, then stick to it. If you ever feel the urge to bet more to win money back, take a break.
Related guides
- Value betting explained: the UK guide
- Expected value betting
- Bankroll management
- Value betting vs matched betting
Lesson 5 of 25 · The foundations
18+ only. Betting should stay fun. Set a budget before you start, only bet what you can comfortably afford, and take a break whenever you need one. For free, confidential support, visit BeGambleAware.org or call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133.